2017 NFL Predictions

 

Every year, I make NFL predictions, but after years toiling away with my only tools being my own opinions and often uninformed conjecture about the less-heralded elements of team success (i.e. offensive line play), Sports Den Global chose to take an analytical, data-driven approach to its 2017 NFL projections.  What follows is the juxtaposition of my own thoughts on the upcoming season and the data compiled by Pro Football Focus, taken together to create comprehensible predictions and, ultimately, a new Super Bowl champion.

 

To see the full methodology for Oestericher’s predictions, click here. 

 

For over a decade now, the AFC EAST has consistently been the least competitive division in football, yielding to a PATRIOTS dynasty that has taken 13 of the last 14 division crowns.  With an offseason full of upgrades, this season doesn’t figure to be any different…  The DOLPHINS are poised for a step back—they vastly overperformed a negative point differential with a 10-6 record and playoff appearance last year—and Jay Cutler doesn’t help that.  There’s a reason he couldn’t find work…  This is a make-or-break year for the BILLS.  Another year of mediocrity and they’re tearing it down, and without a commitment to Tyrod and with the defense already gutted, that appears to be their direction…  The JETS might be the worst team in the NFL—by design.  The lack of compensation they got for their veterans is equally surprising.  Write them off and bring in Sam Darnold.

 

Patriots                       14-2 (1)

Dolphins                      8-8

Bills                             6-10

Jets                             3-13

 

The AFC NORTH is another division that boasts one elite team and a bunch of mediocre ones, though that characterization represents a departure from its typically competitive nature.  The STEELERS offense is truly awesome—finally healthy and complete.  They could average close to 40 a game if they want to, and the defense is poised to take a step forward.  Expect a huge year…  The rest of the division is unusually weak.  The script has been flipped on the BENGALS, whose offense boasts a bevy of playmakers, but the defense is aging and in decline.  Absent a long-awaited step forward from Dalton, they’re going to struggle…  Similar story with the RAVENS: Stuck in NFL purgatory for a while now following their Super Bowl victory five years ago, neither side of the ball has the talent to break them out …  Many equate the BROWNS with the Jets, but that’s an unfair comparison.  At least Cleveland has direction and, moreover, the building blocks for a playoff team.  They’ll be bad again, but give them time.

 

Steelers                       14-2 (2)

Bengals                       6-10

Ravens                        6-10

Browns                        4-12

 

The AFC SOUTH is the worst division in football.  Both the TITANS and the TEXANS are popular preseason breakout picks, but I don’t think either is there yet.  In Tennessee, Mariota and Co. have a lot of potential, but I don’t buy the defense’s transformation.  Switch that around and you have the problem in Houston.  The defense is elite, but the offense is truly atrocious.  Even forgetting the fact that QB controversies rarely make for playoff teams, the offensive line is the worst in the league…  The COLTS would be most peoples’ next choice, but the defense is among the worst in the NFL and the offense lacks explosiveness behind T.Y. Hilton, especially if Luck is sidelined for an extended period of time…  That’s why I think—out of nowhere—it’s the JAGUARS that pull this one out.  Just forget the QB for a second and it makes sense: An old-school run game behind Fournette and a stingy defense led by one of the best cornerback duos in the league.  Any semblance of competent play from Bortles or Henne will get them there.

 

Jaguars                        8-8 (4)

Titans                          8-8

Texans                         7-9

Colts                            4-12

 

From the worst division in football to one of the best.  The AFC WEST is going to be filthy…  Start in Oakland, where the RAIDERS are coming off their first playoff season in 14 years.  While they experienced a little luck along the way, their offense is explosive, and if Lynch can provide balance, a division title is in the cards…  The CHIEFS are equally impressive and boast a stout defense ripe with talent.  Offensive knocks could prove to be unwarranted: The conservative offense could finally work with all the speed they have on that side of the ball…   The CHARGERS too are trending up.  Rivers’ turnover numbers belie his status as one of the most consistent QBs in the NFL, and former Seahawks darling Gus Bradley will be huge for the defense…  The BRONCOS are certainly down from their peak, but the doomsday scenarios are overblown.  Their defense is still elite, and their options at quarterback could be worse.  They’ll keep the score down and win some games.

 

Raiders                        11-5 (3)

Chiefs                          10-6 (5)

Chargers                      9-7 (6)

Broncos                       9-7

 

Switching over to the NFC, the NFC EAST will be one of the most highly contested divisions in football…  The rookies got a lot of credit for the COWBOYS’ success last year, but this team is deeper than people realize.  Even if Prescott can’t replicate his insane turnover numbers, the offensive line will continue to clear chasms and the defense is comfortable in their scheme…  The GIANTS were one of the most-improved teams in football last year, and the credit goes to their D.  They’re returning almost that entire unit, and upgrades in Eli’s weaponry should give their offense just enough life to break into the postseason once again…  The EAGLES are good in the trenches and Doug Pederson proved to be a much-needed departure from the Chip Kelly era.  With a lot of new faces at the skill positions, it’s up to Wentz to prove himself and take another step forward…  The Kirk Cousins situation in Washington has turned into an embarrassment.  This is the last year the REDSKINS can put off choosing a direction for their franchise, though a roster ripe with uncertainty won’t necessarily help them there.

 

Cowboys                      10-6 (4)

Giants                         9-7 (6)

Eagles                         8-8

Redskins                      8-8

 

The NFC NORTH has been dominated for the past half-decade by the Green Bay PACKERS, and this is not the year their dominance will subside.  Rodgers is squarely in his prime, the best quarterback in football, and has an offense built for his strengths.  A deep playoff run is expected…  Last year represented a tale of two seasons for the VIKINGS, and yet this team represents something in between its hot start and cold finish.  Zimmer has created one of the most dynamic defenses in football, but a vanilla offense will continue to hold them back…  The rest of this division is ugly.  Matt Stafford is just about the only redeeming quality about the Detroit LIONS, and their historically awful pass defense does not appear to have gotten any better…  Last season was a disaster for a BEARS team looking to compete, and embracing the rebuild this offseason was a good start.  QB controversy will mire their year, but the real unit to watch for improvement will be the defense, which was among the worst in 2016.

 

Packers                        12-4 (2)

Vikings                        9-7

Lions                            5-11

Bears                           4-12

 

The NFC SOUTH has proven to be one of the most unpredictable divisions in football, sending three different teams to the Super Bowl over the past eight years.  This year, though, the FALCONS return one of the most talented rosters in the league, and coming off their 28-3 collapse, they should be hungry for redemption.  Look for Ryan, Freeman, and Jones to set the world on fire once again…  The PANTHERS’ collapse last year was confusing, though not unexpected.  They’re much more talented than their 6-10 record indicates, and the front 7 is still among the best in football.  If Newton bounces back, they’re dangerous…  I can see the hype with the BUCS, but I think they’re a year away.  Winston is still way too turnover-prone, and while new weapons abound out wide, their O-line and running game will struggle…  The story with the SAINTS is the same every year: Brees can put up 35, but the defense will give up 40.  I don’t think that has changed.

Falcons                        13-3 (1)

Panthers                      10-6 (5)

Bucs                            8-8

Saints                          6-10

 

The SEAHAWKS are once again the class of the NFC WEST, and though this offseason has bred far less hype than the last few, this is still the same team that’s been knocking on the door ever since their Super Bowl victory in 2014.  Last year’s offensive woes are somewhat concerning, but as long as the defense is sharp, this is one of the best teams in football…  The difference between 2015’s breakout CARDINALS and last year’s version?  The offensive line.  The defense is more than solid, and David Johnson is elite, but if Carson Palmer continues to take hits like he did, this team will be on the outside looking in come January…  Despite a lot of high draft picks and promising young stars, the RAMS continue to struggle.  I don’t see this year as their ticket out of the top 10, though a year of improvement for Jared Goff would set them on the right track…  The 49ers might be the only team in the NFL that can upset the Jets’ hope for the number one selection in the draft, and the sad thing is, this isn’t intentional: the team is stock with veterans, yet a last place finish is all but assured.

 

AFC Wild Card Round: Raiders over Chargers / Chiefs over Jaguars

NFC Wild Card Round: Seahawks over Giants / Cowboys over Panthers

AFC Divisional Round: Patriots over Chiefs / Steelers over Raiders

NFC Divisional Round: Falcons over Cowboys / Packers over Seahawks

AFC Championship Game: Steelers over Patriots

NFC Championship Game: Falcons over Packers

Super Bowl: Steelers over Falcons

Team Grades

AFC

AFC East

New England Patriots (20.5)

QB: 5

Skill: 4

OL: 3.5

Front 7: 3

DBs: 5

Miami Dolphins (14.5)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 4

OL: 2.5

Front 7: 3

DBs: 2.5

Buffalo Bills (12.5)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 2

OL: 3.5

Front 7: 2

DBs: 2.5

New York Jets (9)

QB: 1

Skill: 1

OL: 2

Front 7: 3

DBs: 2

AFC North

Pittsburgh Steelers (20.5)

QB: 4

Skill: 5

OL: 5

Front 7: 3.5

DBs: 3

Cincinnati Bengals (12.5)

QB: 3

Skill: 4

OL: 1

Front 7: 2

DBs: 2.5

Baltimore Ravens (12.5)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 1.5

OL: 2

Front 7: 2.5

DBs: 4

Cleveland Browns (10.5)

QB: 1

Skill: 1

OL: 4.5

Front 7: 2

DBs: 2

AFC South

Tennessee Titans (14.5)

QB: 3.5

Skill: 2.5

OL: 4

Front 7: 2.5

DBs: 2

Houston Texans (13)

QB: 1.5

Skill: 2

OL: 1

Front 7: 5

DBs: 3.5

Indianapolis Colts (10.5)

QB: 4

Skill: 2

OL: 2

Front 7: 1

DBs: 1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (15)

QB: 1.5

Skill: 3

OL: 3

Front 7: 3.5

DBs: 4

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs (17)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 3.5

OL: 3

Front 7: 4

DBs: 4

Oakland Raiders (18)

QB: 4

Skill: 3.5

OL: 4.5

Front 7: 3

DBs: 3

Denver Broncos (15.5)

QB: 2

Skill: 2

OL: 2

Front 7: 4.5

DBs: 5

San Diego Chargers (16)

QB: 3.5

Skill: 3.5

OL: 2

Front 7: 3.5

DBs: 3.5

NFC

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys (16.5)

QB: 4

Skill: 4.5

OL: 4.5

Front 7: 1.5

DBs: 2

New York Giants (16)

QB: 3

Skill: 3

OL: 2

Front 7: 3

DBs: 5

Philadelphia Eagles (15)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 2.5

OL: 4.5

Front 7: 4

DBs: 1.5

Washington Redskins (15)

QB: 4

Skill: 2.5

OL: 4

Front 7: 2

DBs: 2.5

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (18.5)

QB: 5

Skill: 3.5

OL: 4.5

Front 7: 3

DBs: 2.5

Minnesota Vikings (16)

QB: 2.5

Skill: 2.5

OL: 2.5

Front 7: 4.5

DBs: 4

Detroit Lions (11)

QB: 3.5

Skill: 2

OL: 2

Front 7: 1.5

DBs: 2

Chicago Bears (10.5)

QB: 2

Skill: 1.5

OL: 4

Front 7: 1.5

DBs: 1.5

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (20)

QB: 4.5

Skill: 4.5

OL: 4

Front 7: 2.5

DBs: 4.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14.5)

QB: 3.5

Skill: 3.5

OL: 2

Front 7: 2.5

DBs: 3

Carolina Panthers (16.5)

QB: 4

Skill: 3

OL: 3

Front 7: 4.5

DBs: 2

New Orleans Saints (12.5)

QB: 4.5

Skill: 2.5

OL: 2.5

Front 7: 1.5

DBs: 1.5

NFC West

Seattle Seahawks (18)

QB: 4.5

Skill: 3

OL: 1

Front 7: 5

DBs: 4.5

Arizona Cardinals (15.5)

QB: 3

Skill: 4

OL: 2

Front 7: 3

DBs: 3.5

Los Angeles Rams (11.5)

QB: 1.5

Skill: 1.5

OL: 2.5

Front 7: 4

DBs: 2

San Francisco 49ers (8)

QB: 1.5

Skill: 1

OL: 2

Front 7: 1.5

DBs: 2

 

FINAL TALLY

20.5

Steelers (14-2, AFC North Champs)

Patriots (14-2, AFC East Champs)

20

Falcons (13-3, AFC South Champs)

19.5 (13-3)

19 (12-4)

18.5

Packers (12-4, NFC North Champs)

18

Seahawks (11-5, NFC West Champs)

Raiders (11-5, NFC West Champs)

17.5 (11-5)

17 (10-6)

Chiefs (10-6, AFC Wild Card)

16.5

Panthers (10-6, NFC Wild Card)

Cowboys (10-6, NFC East Champs)

16

Chargers (9-7, AFC Wild Card)

Giants (9-7, NFC Wild Card)

Vikings (9-7)

15.5

Broncos (9-7)

Cardinals (9-7)

15

Jaguars (8-8, AFC South Champs)

Eagles (8-8)

Redskins (8-8)

14.5

Dolphins (8-8)

Titans (8-8)

Bucs (8-8)

14 (8-8)

13.5 (7-9)

13

Texans (7-9)

12.5

Bills (6-10)

Bengals (6-10)

Ravens (6-10)

Saints (6-10)

12 (6-10)

11.5

Rams (5-11)

11

Lions (5-11)

10.5

Browns (4-12)

Colts (4-12)

Bears (4-12)

10 (4-12)

9.5 (3-13)

9

Jets (3-13)

8.5 (2-14)

8

49ers (2-14)